The good health of international merchandise trade seems to have consolidated in 2018 despite the restrictive trade policy that the United States has been implementing in recent times. Forecasts point to global trade growth of around 3.5% for the year that is now beginning, a figure similar to that which closed 2018.Since 2017, there has been a strong acceleration as a result of the global economic recovery. In that year, the upturn was 4.5%, well above the figures of previous years. Emerging economies led the growth, with rates of 8.9% in Eastern Europe, 7.3% in Asia, and 4.9% in South America. The United States grew above the eurozone, which only reached 3.5%. In 2018 and 2019, it is expected that the growth of international merchandise trade will remain solid, with sustained growth close to 3.5%.
An optimistic outlook for imports
The favorable economic climate has led to discussions to conclude new trade agreements between the European Union, Asia, and South America. Despite U.S. protectionism, these discussions open the door to greater long-term growth in international merchandise trade.One of the keys to this optimistic outlook can be found in the significant contribution of China to global trade. Its exports have experienced an increase of 6.8%, and the rebound in its imports stands at 7.3%.Another determining factor has been the progressive reduction of protectionism that was instituted after the 2008 crisis and remained very firm until 2014. Although the United States has returned to restrictive measures, everything indicates that this stance will not have significant real effects, as its tariffs, if implemented, would affect only a minimal part of annual international trade.
Positive data for Spanish imports and exports
Spanish exports experienced a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with figures exceeding 24.000 billion euros. Meanwhile, imports also had a good moment in 2018, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%, surpassing 27.000 billion euros.Although official data are still provisional, exports decreased by 1.9% on a year-on-year basis in terms of volume; however, imports grew by 0.9% in volume. The reason is that the approximate prices by unit value indices grew by 5.1% in the former case and 6.7% in the latter.The sectors that contribute the most to international trade in our country continue to be capital goods, food, beverages, tobacco, chemicals, and automobiles.The European Union is the recipient of the majority of Spanish exports, accounting for 65.6% of the total. Extracommunity destinations, with 34.4%, also showed positive data. The main destinations outside the EU were the United States, Turkey, and Algeria.By autonomous communities, Andalusia experienced the highest year-on-year variation rate, followed by the Basque Country and the Autonomous Community of Navarre. The worst data were seen in the Balearic Islands, Extremadura, and the Community of Madrid.In the European Union, exports increased in Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Outside the EU, China stood out as one of the main exporters, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, closely followed by the United States (9.3% year-on-year) and Japan (6.7% year-on-year), which ranks third.
Importation in Spain: Where our purchases come from
The main countries from which Spain imports products are Germany, France, Italy, China, and the Netherlands. This data highlights the heterogeneity of our imports. The volume of purchases from these countries is as follows:Germany: 12.22%France: 11.78%Italy: 6.29%China: 5.71%Netherlands: 5.03%As can be seen, China remains our main supplier outside the European Union. The opportunities for trade with this country are numerous. Among the products most exported by China are electrical and electronic machinery, textiles, iron, steel, medical equipment, and toys.
